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Polling expert: CTV/Globe & Mail poll “grossly mischaracterized inferences”

Just received by e-mail from ROBBINS Sce Research (my highlighting):

July 18, 2005

ROBBINS Sce Research (1998)
www.robbinssceresearch.com

For immediate Release-

ROBBINS Sce Research reveals new Strategic Counsel Poll released by CTV as misinterpreted propaganda.

According to a legal expert on public opinion polling, the recent News reports relating to the recent Strategic Counsel poll of 1,000 Canadians is “misleading beyond imagination.

The poll according to Glen P. Robbins of ROBBINS Sce Research released through CTV over two days “reflects yet another classic case of the media introducing grossly mischaracterized inferences for polling outcomes that are not substantiated through the data.”

“In the party popularity portion of the poll, the federal Liberals are represented as on the rise in pubic opinion in Canada by 1% to 35%, down 6%  from the last general federal election in 2004.  However the federal Liberals are also shown as being up in the province of Quebec by 12% from 16% to 28%.  This alone would impact on the federal Liberal totals by more then 3% nationally without impacting in any significant way the seat losses the party has endured in that province owing in large part to the Quebec sponsorship scandal.”  “In essence” adds ROBBINS “the federal Liberals are actually down an additional 2% nationally according to this poll”.

In the Strategic Counsel poll it is touted that 55% of Canadians are of the opinion that “the next government should let same sex marriage legislation stand.”  But also in this poll 60% of the respondents could not determine a “notable achievement” of the government during the last parliament.  When provided with a short list of suggested achievements only 19% picked same-sex marriage from this limited list.

According to ROBBINS “this means that according to this poll generally less then 10% and possibly as few as 5% of Canadians have a strong empathy for same sex legislation (Bill C-38).”

“In truth” adds ROBBINS, “the polls veracity as interpreted by CTV News is dubious and thus its release in this context constitutes nothing more or less then political propaganda.”  Says ROBBINS “If I were Opposition Leader Stephen Harper I would assert confidence from the findings of this poll.  It confirms a recent ROBBINS poll that the Liberals have lost seats since the last federal general election, and confirms the federal Liberals have accomplished little while in government under Leader Paul Martin, including the passing of Bill C-38.” 

Adds ROBBINS, “If I were federal NDP Leader Jack Layton I would be very concerned, as he has hitched his wagon to the crowded side of what will certainly become a contentious social issue where Opposition Leader Stephen Harper has at least 50% of public support during the upcoming federal general election expected in the next 6 months, and to a government that does not appear to be willing to fulfill any of its obligations to the recent budget amendments and increased spending agreed to with his party.”

Glen P. Robbins

(604) 942-3757

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