As they did in the last federal election and the one before, Nik Nanos’ SES Research has proven to be close to exactly spot-on, right to the decimal point, in predicting the Ontario election outcome based on their polling—across every party. Working for Sun Media group, their latest prediction came out like this compared to the actual results:
Liberal (Election 42.1%, SES 42.6%)
PC (Election 31.4%, SES 30.5%)
NDP (Election 17.1%, SES 17.5%)
Green (Election 8.1%, SES 9.4%)
The polling firm permanently contracted by liberalvision CTV and their sister the Globe and Mail, “The Strategic Counsel” was close to right on the Liberal vote (they provide no decimals), I suspect because they are intimately close to them and know them so well. But they way underestimated the Progressive Conservative vote and way overestimated the NDP and Green Party vote.
Their last poll was conducted between Oct. 6 and 7 for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.
Liberal (Election 42.1%, Strategic Council 42%)
PC (Election 31.4%, Strategic Council 27%)
NDP (Election 17.1%, Strategic Council 19%)
Green (Election 8.1%, Strategic Council 11%)
To me this means you can trust SES numbers and can’t necessarily trust “The Strategic Council”.
PTBC was founded by Mr. Johannesen in 2000.
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