Thanks to Barb for catching this:
How to produce high approval ratings for Obama
Steve McCannJust read an AP report: the percentage of Americans that think the country is on the right track rose to 48% in March as compared to 40% in February. In light of the unemployment rising, the debacle in foreign affairs etc, I found it unlikely. So I looked into the details of the poll.
73% of the Democrats polled thought we were on the right track
17% of Independents
10% of RepublicansThat made it even more suspicious as to how those numbers could result in a 48% overall right track vote.
So digging deeper, it turns out
36% of those polled were Democrats
18% Republican
26% Independent
18% None claimedIn the 2008 election the spread between Democrats and Republicans was 6.5 percentage points not 18 and independents made up 22% of the vote not 26%.
It appears that there have been similar distortions in the various polls measuring Obama’s approval ratings.
I looked myself, and the AP report itself includes only this pro-forma information at the very end:
The AP-GfK Poll was conducted April 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media. It involved telephone interviews on landline and cell phones with 1,000 adults nationwide. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
I’m pretty sure the CTV-Globe and Mail’s latest polling from their polling firm called Council of Liberal Yumminess and Progressive Strategery and Grand Numbers o’ All Get Out Accuracy and Popcorn Council Subcommittee (or something like that) has similar results as the AP report for their leader Michael Ignatieff.
Meanwhile in the latest, more reliable and honest Rasmussen polling…
53% Say Next President Likely To Be A Republican
Friday, April 24, 2009For the first time since Barack Obama was elected president last November, more than half of U.S. voters (53%) say it is at least somewhat likely that the next occupant of the White House will be a Republican. Thirty-one percent (31%) say it is Very Likely.
[…]
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 47% now say a GOP president is likely, while 33% think not.
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