GUADALAJARA, Mex.—I’m sitting in the American Legion sporting my Republicans Abroad shirt—courtesy of GOP stalwarts who inducted me into their party—and chatting with a diverse group of conservative and liberal political activists.
My Republican friends are worried about finding a candidate for 2008, and Democrat colleagues are moaning that since they’ve lost seven of the past 10 presidential elections, they can’t afford another loss.
Well, seven out of 10 losses is pretty steep, but had that gadfly Ross Perot not stolen a huge chunk of the Republican vote in 1992, George Bush Sr. would not have lost to Bill Clinton, which makes for some fascinating scenarios. Monica Lewinsky would not now be infamous.
Had Bush Sr. dumped the hapless vice-president Dan Quayle, he might still have sneaked through a win.
In 2004, when John Kerry started boasting about his Vietnam experiences—all six weeks of them, when he took a movie camera along to film his own heroic actions, to boot—I thought, huh, huh, there’s trouble here. You never hear patriot John McCain, who spent six years in a Vietcong POW camp talk about his heroism.
But forget the general widening of the Republican vote, George W. Bush was reasonably vulnerable in 2004. Despite a three-million vote edge, a key state loss and it would have been it. The right Democrat might well have done it.
Back during the primaries I, too allowed myself to be submerged by the backlash of Howard Dean’s infamous “scream” following his loss in the Wisconsin primary.
The media buried Dean’s chances with that scream. Yet what was Dean supposed to do?
Hang his head low and admit defeat? No, instead he screamed the fight was going to continue. If he hadn’t been torpedoed by the media and then run out of money, the election result might have been far different.
Last October, while visiting Hong Kong, I attended Stephen Forbes’ Global Economic Conference. One of the many top guest speakers was none other than Howard Dean.
Listening to his speech and chatting to him afterwards, I thought, “Everything this man says on domestic and foreign policy is so rational. He’s head and shoulders above anyone else in Democratic ranks.”
Which, admittedly, may not be saying much.
Still, instead of going for a deep-thinker, the Democrats went for the supposed star quality of Kerry.
Good-looking, charming, debonair and, with a stylish “I’m John Kerry, and I’m reporting for duty” salute. Good theatre, for sure—but it didn’t work.
Ah, ah, how different it might have been if the Democrats hadn’t been looking for some magical formula, but had gone on intellect instead.
With 2008 on the horizon, many Democrats are looking for a magical candidate again, and have centred on Illinois Senator and African-American Barack Obama.
Again, it won’t work. If three terms as governor of Vermont didn’t qualify Dean for the presidency, one magical speech by Obama surely won’t.
Into our chats came a sneer for the awful Hillary Clinton because she is now doing a “makeover.”
There’s been a big feature on her new, more moderate persona in Time magazine, and she now reveals she’s always felt every abortion a “personal tragedy.”
Well, I don’t like Hillary Clinton at all, but don’t fault her on softening her image.
When you’re on the sidelines or in the political backbenches you can take all kinds of outrageous stands or make outright silly statements. Look at Al Sharpton.
But, when you’re after the middle vote, you have to soften your stances.
So, I’m not knocking Hillary Clinton. Unless Dean makes a second bid, and he may seriously consider it, Bill’s long-suffering wife may well be the next presidential candidate, even, God forbid, the president.
As for the Republicans, John McCain still stands out as their best bet. OK, so he’ll be 71 come the primaries. That’s only one year older than Ronald Reagan was when elected president the first time.
Ponder this, too, Hillary Clinton has publicly said she thinks McCain would make a very good president.
McCain on Hillary, an identical assessment. With two candidates who each admire each other’s qualifications, 2008 would be a fascinating race.
But don’t forget the possible Howard Dean factor.
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